GDL

Journal from gdlhub / 2017-08-14 11:56:36
Oleh : Lance Bachmeier , Patrick Gaughan, Norman R. Swansond, STIKOM Dinamika Bangsa Jambi
Dibuat : 2010-08-25, dengan 1 file

Keyword : volume,federal, litigation, macroeconomy

In this paper we examine the extent to which fluctuations in a number of macroeconomic variables


impact on the volume of federal litigation cases. In particular, the impact of aggregate U.S. GDP,


consumption, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates on the volume of antitrust, bankruptcy,


contract, personal injury, and product liability cases between the years 1960 and 2000 is examined


using Granger causal analysis and vector autoregression models [see e.g., Granger, C. W. J. (1988).


Some recent developments in a concept of causality. Journal of Econometrics, 39, 199–211]. Our


empirical findings suggest that there are several linkages between macroeconomic variables and the


volume of litigation cases, in broad agreement with the findings of Siegelman and Donohue [1995;


The selection of employment discrimination disputes for litigation: using business cycle effects to test


the Priest–Klein hypothesis. Journal of Legal Studies, 24, 427–462], who find that unemployment is


an important determinant of the (number and) quality of employment cases filed. Most noteworthy,


we find that there is a causal linkage from output, consumption and inflation to the total volume of


federal litigation, so that predictions of future litigation volume can be improved by using information


contained in currentmacroeconomic aggregates. Causation in the other direction (i.e. fromthe volume


of litigation to macroeconomic activity) is not found in the data, however. Based on impulse response


analysis, it is seen that shocks to income, consumption and inflation immediately lead to an increase in


the volume of litigation, with shocks to inflation having the largest impact, and shocks to consumption


having a rathermoderate impact. In addition, the long run impact that shocks to each of these variables


has on the volume of litigation is positive, regardless of whether the VAR or VEC model is used.


Here, again, the impact of consumption is quite moderate, though. Additionally, similar results arise when examining the relation between various individualmeasures of federal litigation volume and the


macroeconomy. Thus, the volume of federal litigation does not appear to be immune to the business


cycle, a finding which is in broad agreement with the findings of Siegelman and Donohue.

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